USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Trump, Cruz break away from the pack
The Republican presidential nomination increasingly looks like a two-person race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
The two are neck and neck in our Power Rankings this week, with Trump on top by a razor-thin margin. Everyone else lags far behind. Each week since early September we have asked a group of 30 political experts to rank who is the strongest candidate in the field. In recent weeks, it has been Trump and Cruz, and only the margins separating them from the pack has changed.
"It's become a two person race in Iowa, because Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush have failed to do what's necessary to compete there with Trump, Cruz, and the rest of the field," said Craig Robinson, editor of TheIowaRepublican.com "Their half-hearted approach will leave them personally disappointed and in risk of being unable to right the ship."
Iowa State University's Dianne Bystrom agreed. "Mainstream Republicans are running out of time to find an alternative to Trump or Cruz. At this point, that alternative may be Marco Rubio."
Or maybe Jeb Bush, says digital consultant Phil Musser. "Several surveys and direct feedback suggest a second look is occurring for Jeb in New Hampshire. That's good timing. But the core problem remains: a crowded lane to compete in."
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
Aaron Ghitelman of Headcount, a voter registration group, said "it feels as if this once dynamic race has calcified in the last few weeks as the Iowa Caucuses grow close." And it is true: This is the first time our rankings have been identical two weeks in a row.
But the top two are not the only spots that matter. "The big battle is not just for first place in Iowa and New Hampshire but who is the 'surprise' to come out in second, a close third or seriously exceeding expectations," said Democratic pollster Peter Fenn. "The next three weeks will see a rapid increase in the jockeying for position."
Trump received 16 first place votes this week, Cruz got nine, and Rubio three.
WEEK 20 RANKINGS
1. Donald Trump (Last Week: 1)
2. Ted Cruz (2)
3. Marco Rubio (3)
4. Chris Christie (4)
5. Jeb Bush (5)
6. Ben Carson (6)
7. John Kasich (7)
8. Rand Paul (8)
9. Carly Fiorina (9)
10. Mike Huckabee (10)
11. Rick Santorum (11)
12. Jim Gilmore (12)
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3
Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6
Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9
Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12
Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15
Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18
Week 19
Participants in USA TODAY's GOP Power Rankings:
Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster and author of The Selfie Vote
Henry Barbour, Republican strategist, Mississippi
Paul Brathwaite, principal, Podesta Group
Dianne Bystrom, director, Center for Women and Politics, Iowa State University
Herman Cain, talk show host and former GOP presidential candidate
Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist and CNN Commentator, The Dewey Square Group
Frank Donatelli, former RNC deputy chairman and Reagan advisor
Sara Fagen, partner, DDC Advocacy
Peter Fenn, Democratic political strategist, Fenn Communications
Denise Feriozzi, deputy executive director, EMILY’s List
Karen Floyd, CEO, The Palladian Group and former South Carolina GOP chair
Aaron Ghitelman, communications manager, HeadCount
Andra Gillespie, polling analyst and political science professor, Emory University
Nathan L. Gonzales, editor, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report
Lilly J. Goren, political science and global studies professor, Carroll University
Doug Gross, Iowa attorney and previous Republican gubernatorial nominee
O. Kay Henderson, news director, Radio Iowa
Ken Khachigian, senior partner, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck
Carl Leubsdorf, Washington columnist, The Dallas Morning News
Deb Lucia, Topeka 912 – the Capital City Tea Party
Matt Mackowiak, Republican consultant and president, Potomac Strategy Group, LLC
Dan Maffei, former Democratic congressman, New York
Phil Musser, chairman, IMGE digital media agency
Margie Omero, Democratic pollster, Purple Insights
Jon Ralston, host, "Ralston Live" on PBS affiliates in Nevada
Craig Robinson, founder and editor, TheIowaRepublican.com
Alan Rosenblatt, Ph.D., Sr. VP of digital strategy, turner4D
Dante Scala, political science professor, University of New Hampshire
Adam Sharp, head of news, government and elections, Twitter
Alex Smith, national chairman, College Republicans
Todd Spangler, Washington correspondent, Detroit Free Press
Kathy Sullivan, DNC committeewoman and former Democratic Party chair, New Hampshire
Special thanks to the Palladian Group for building our survey platform.